Breaking: Another multi-billion dollar company buys more ...

07-27 17:32 - 'There will launch a new crypto exchange soon. People who registered on their website get $100 dollar for free, this is nice to get and to invest in your coins. (or pay it out). Check also their roadmap, it looks promissed. / H...' by /u/Wavesflag removed from /r/Bitcoin within 2-12min

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There will launch a new crypto exchange soon. People who registered on their website get $100 dollar for free, this is nice to get and to invest in your coins. (or pay it out). Check also their roadmap, it looks promissed. Here is the link to get the money: [link]1
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Wavesflag
1: wcex.**/?ref*FnVt**h
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

$1k in Top Ten Cryptos of 2020 vs. the S&P 500 so far this year

$1k in Top Ten Cryptos of 2020 vs. the S&P 500 so far this year

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month Eight - UP +83%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr
  • Don't panic, crypto is still crushing the stock market in 2020
  • purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2020, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2019. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • August - strong month for 2020 Top Ten led by ETH and Tezos
  • Since Jan. 2020 - ETH, ETH, ETH, far far ahead (+266%). Tezos a distant second at +158%. 100% of 2020 Top Ten are in positive territory and have a combined ROI of +83% vs. +9% of the S&P
  • Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Eight – UP 83%

2020 Top Ten overview - UP +83%
By the slimmest of margins, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio has reclaimed its status as the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments. ETH had a great month, up +32% and all cryptos were in the green except the forks.

Question of the month:

In August, which socialite sold a drawing of her cat for $17,000 worth of Ethereum?

A) Ivanka Trump
B) Paris Hilton
C) Kim Kardashian
D) That other one
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and August Winners and Losers

2020 Top Ten Rank
Despite another strong month overall, most of our 2020 Top Ten Cryptos either held steady or lost ground. XRP, BCH, and EOS each fell one position to #4, #6, and #12. BSV dropped two spots from #6 to #8. Heading the other direction, stablecoin Tether ended August climbing back up to #3.
August WinnersETH backed up July‘s massive +55% gain with another very solid month, finishing August up +32%. Tezos finished in second place, +15% on the month.
August LosersBSV and BCH were the worst performing of the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio, down -17% and -9% respectively
Since COVID-19 has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against themselves, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses at this point in the experiment. With its second straight win ETH is now in the lead with three monthly Ws. On the other hand, BSV, even though it is up +100% since January 1st, 2020, has been the worst performing crypto of the bunch four out of the first eight months so far this year.
2020 Top Ten Ws and Ls

Overall update – ETH far out in front, followed Tezos. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.

Ethereum pulled farther ahead this month and now is up +266% on the year. Thanks to a strong month for Tezos and a week month for BSV, Tezos has now overtaken BSV for second place, up +158% in 2020. Discounting Tether (no offense Big-T), BCH (+32%) is now the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are in positive territory.

Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market gained almost $43B in August, ending the month up +104% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020.

Bitcoin dominance:

2020 monthly BitDom
BitDom finally saw significant movement in August: it fell to 56.8%, the lowest level of the year. This of course signals a greater appetite for altcoins. The range up to this point in the year has been roughly 57% to 68%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,825, up +82.52%. It is back to being the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but by the smallest of margins: the 2019 group came in at +82.51% in August.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along:
Monthly ROI to 2020 Top Ten
Even during the zombie apocalypse blip in March, the 2020 Top Ten managed to end every month so far in the green (for a mirror image, check out the all red table you’ll in the 2018 experiment). The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between a low of +7% in March and high of +83% in August.
So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,937‬ ($287+ $1,825 +$1,825).
That’s up about +31% for the three combined portfolios. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I started keeping track in January 2020. The previous high was last month‘s +23%.
Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:

ROI on $1k + $1k +$1k over three years
That’s a +31% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While most have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have remained in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Let’s take a look at those five:
Three year club. ETH would have been your best bet.
At this point in the Experiments, Ethereum (+160%) would have easily returned the most, followed by BTC (+93%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -17%.
So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P continued its recovery and set an all time high in August. It is now up +9% in 2020.
S&P throughout 2020
Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +83%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,825. That sane $1k I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1090 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 instead. That’s a $735 difference on a $1k investment, the largest gap in favor of crypto all year.
But that’s just 2020. What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$310
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$400
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$90
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,800.
That $3,800 is up over +27% since January 2018, compared to a +31% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time.
For the second month in a row, the better overall investment would be (drum roll please): the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios!
As you’ll see in the table below, this is only the second time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed a hypothetical identical investment in the S&P.
Combined crypto vs. S&P over three years

Conclusion:

August was the second straight strong month in crypto and the 2020 Top Ten continue to do very well compared to traditional markets. As I’m putting together these reports, both crypto and traditional markets are diving, but these Experiments are great for a bit of perspective: there is no question that crypto has been a better investment than traditional markets so far this year. It’s not even close. How the rest of the year will develop is another question entirely, stay tuned and buckle up.
Stay healthy and take care of yourselves out there. Or better yet, just pop some popcorn and enjoy staying in.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.

And the Answer is…

B) Paris Hilton
At an auction in August, Paris Hilton sold a portrait of her cat that fetched 40 ETH, about $17,000 at the time. She donated the proceeds of the sale to charity.
That's hot.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

If you're stressed, zoom out - $1k in Top Ten Cryptos of 2019 is up +83%, double that of the S&P

If you're stressed, zoom out - $1k in Top Ten Cryptos of 2019 is up +83%, double that of the S&P

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2019 - Month Twenty - UP +83%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr:
  • purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2019, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • August - solid month for the 2019 Top Ten, led by Tron and ETH.
  • Since Jan. 2019 - ETH takes lead from BTC. XRP worst performing since Jan. 1st, 2019
  • Over three years, cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Twenty – UP 83%

2019 Top Ten Overview
Although not quite a strong as red-hot July, the 2019 Top Ten Cryptos had a solid month. Overall, modest losses were offset by strong performances by Tron (+53%) and ETH (+32%).

Question of the month:

In August, this financial services giant filed for a new Bitcoin fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

A) Goldman Sachs B) Vanguard C) Charles Schwab D) Fidelity
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and August Winners and Losers

A whole lot of shaking going on this month as the 2019 Top Ten cryptos jostled for position. XRP, BCH, EOS, and XLM each fell one spot while BSV dropped two. Moving the other direction: Tether climbed up one, and is now back in the #3 position. Thanks to a very strong August, Tron made the most upward progress, advancing two slots to #14.
Only three cryptos have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten since January 1st, 2019: Tron, Stellar, and EOS. Not bad after 20 months considering crypto’s volatility. As of August, they have been replaced by BNB, CRO, and LINK.
August WinnersTron, with a +53% gain, easily outperformed its peers. Tron was followed by ETH (+32%), a solid follow up to its +55% gain in July.
August LosersThe Forks. BCH and BSV under performed the pack, finishing the month down -17% and -9% respectively.
For overly competitive nerds, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 20 months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with six monthly victories, twice as much as second place BSV and ETH. And although BSV is up over +100% since January 2019, it is running away with the monthly loss count: it has now finished last in eight out of twenty months. Swing trade anyone? XRP still hasn’t been able to take home a single W.
Ws and Ls

Overall update – ETH takes lead from BTC. XRP still worst performing since Jan. 1st, 2019

After three straight months ahead, BTC (+215%) lost its front-runner status to ETH (up +244% since January 2019). A distant third is BSV up +109%. The initial $100 investment in ETH is currently worth $353.
Twenty months in to the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment, 80% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are either flat or in the green. The other two cryptos are in negative territory, including last place XRP (down -19% since January 2019). At +82.5%, the 2019 Top Ten is essentially tied with the 2020 Top Ten, both far ahead of the 2018 group, which is down -71% (but trending upward).

Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:


Monthly market cap since Jan. 1, 2019
Since January 2019, the total market cap for crypto is up +204%. The overall market picked up nearly $43B in August and is approaching $400B. For the second month in a row, the market is at its highest month-end level since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment started 20 months ago.

Bitcoin dominance:

The last 20 months of BitDom
BitDom‘s wobble in July is nothing compared to the more than 5% dip we saw in August. It had been locked in the mid-60s% range for months, but started dipping in July, signaling a greater appetite for altcoins. Zooming out, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio gained over $100 in August, nothing like July‘s +$450 but still solid. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 group of Top Ten cryptos is worth $1,825. With some generous rounding, that’s up about +83%.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first 20 months of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiment, month by month:
Month by month ROI of 2019 Top Ten
Unlike the completely red table you’ll see in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, the 2019 crypto table is almost all green. The first month was the lowest point (-9%), and the highest point (+114%) was May 2019.
At +82.51%, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio has lost its hard-fought position as the best performing of the three Top Ten Experiments, but just barely (the 2020 Top Ten is up +82.52%)
Speaking of the other Experiments, let’s take a look at how the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Portfolio compare to the parallel projects:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,937‬ ($287+ $1,825 +$1,825).
That’s up about +31% for the three combined portfolios. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I started keeping track in January 2020. The previous high was last month‘s +23%.
Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
Combined ROI on $3k
That’s a +31% gain by dropping $1k once a year on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have remained in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Let’s take a look at those five:
Three year club - ETH out in front
Ethereum (+160%) would have returned the most at this point, followed by BTC (+93%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -17%.
Alright, that’s crypto. How does crypto compare to the stock market?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiments to have a comparison point with more traditional markets. Even with everything that’s going on in the world, the S&P continues adding value and reached an all time high in August. It is now up +40% since January 2019.
Monthly S&P levels since Jan. 2019
The initial $1k investment I put into crypto 20 months ago would be worth $1,400 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.
The 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +83% over last 20 months, over double the ROI of the S&P 500 over the same time period.
But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$310
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$400
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$90
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,800.
That is up over+27% since January 2018, compared to a +31% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
As you can see in the table below, August’s 4% difference in favor of crypto marks the second month in a row the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios have outperformed the S&P had I taken a similar investment approach.

Combined crypto vs. S&P

Conclusion:

Thanks to a strong couple of months, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is doing just as well as the 2020 Top Ten group, both of which are far, far ahead of the 2018 Top Ten. Meanwhile, despite the presence of a global pandemic and all the uncertainty associated with an election year, the US stock markets reached all time highs in August. As we approach the fall, I’m buckling up for an unpredictable final stretch of an unpredictable year.
Be safe and take care of each other out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

And the Answer is…

D) Fidelity
In August, the SEC published a new filing for a Bitcoin fund, submitted by financial services giant Fidelity.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020

Midway along the journey of our life I woke to find myself in a dark wood, for I had wandered off from the straight path.
Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I
This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January.
The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March
[Chart]
The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent).
Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan.
As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events.
Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less.
Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation
One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue.
My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions.
As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation.
This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure).
This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings.
Mapping the sources of portfolio variances
Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements.
For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded.
Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value.
Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements?
The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation?
This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic.
Tracking course drift in the portfolio components
As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities.
Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations.
The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target.
[Chart]
This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation.
This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case.
A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone
This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached.
Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions.
At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses.
[Chart]
Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed.
Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary.
Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample.
For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1%
Summary
What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected.
What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above.
It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019.
This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under.
In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies.
The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month.
This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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End of day summary - 09/11

The Dow rose 131.06, or 0.48%, to 27,665.64, the Nasdaq lost 66.05, or 0.60%, to 10,853.55, and the S&P 500 advanced 1.78, or 0.05%, to 3,340.97.
Traders at /thewallstreet cheered as volatility returned to the stock market.
The major averages finished Friday's trading in mixed fashion, as dip buyers provided support for the Dow and the continued tech selloff made the Nasdaq the laggard once again. The chances for another round of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election were hurt yesterday after Democrats stopped the passage of the "skinny" GOP package, but the U.S. economy looks poised for a strong rebound in Q3, corporate earnings continue to largely overshoot pessimistic forecasts and the Fed remains "all in," leaving investors to mull the cross-currents.
Similar to the days before, today's price action was technically-oriented given the absence of market-moving news and the losses in stocks like AAPL, -1.3%, AMZN, -1.9%, and MSFT, -0.7% on no specific corporate news. Apple shares fell 7.4% this week.
The difference today was that their losses were offset by relative strength in the cyclical sectors, namely industrials (+1.4%), materials (+1.3%), and financials (+0.8%). Still, when Apple and Amazon are down more than 1.0%, there must be more winners than losers to make a meaningful difference.
There were more of the latter on Friday, as declining issues outpaced advancing issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq. The information technology (-0.8%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), and communication services (-0.3%) sectors ended the day in negative territory due to their exposure to the mega-cap stocks.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 was down as much as 0.9% intraday and fell below its 50-day moving average (3322). A broad rebound in the afternoon, however, helped the benchmark index turn positive and close above the key technical level.
In TikTok news, President Trump said that the deadline established for China's ByteDance to sell video-sharing service TikTok's U.S. operations would not be extended, Reuters reported. "It'll either be closed up or they'll sell it," the president told reporters, adding, "There will be no extension of the TikTok deadline." MSFT in partnership with WMT and Oracle have been seen as the leading suitors to purchase TikTok's operations in the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Subsequently, Reuters reported that Chinese officials are so opposed to a forced sale of TikTok's U.S. operations that they would prefer to see the app shut down in the U.S. over that conclusion. Reuters noted that China was willing, if needed, to use revisions it made to a technology exports list on Aug. 28 to delay any deal reached by ByteDance.
Electric vehicle hopeful NKLA continued its fight this morning with a short-seller, which now appears to be "short-sellers." Nikola issued a statement in response to claims made about the company by activist short-seller Hindenburg Research yesterday, calling the firm's report "a hit job for short sale profit driven by greed." Nikola, which added that it has "nothing to hide and we will refute these allegations," announced that it has retained law firm Kirkland & Ellis to evaluate potential legal recourse and intends to bring the actions of the short-seller, together with evidence and documentation, to the attention of the SEC. Following the company's press release regarding the response, Andrew Left's Citron Research said via Twitter, "Congrats to Hindenburg for exposing what appears to be a total fraud with $NKLA. Citron will cover half of all legal expenses. You can't SLAPP the truth away. Explains why Milton sold at $10 this June $NKLA response warrants an SEC investigation to maintain integrity of EV mkt." After having dropped 11% on Thursday, Nikola shares fell a further 14.5%.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that AAPL has updated its App Store guidelines ahead of the release of iOS 14, with one major revision relating to game streaming services. The tech giant said in its revised guidelines that services such as Google Stadia (GOOG) and Microsoft xCloud are explicitly permitted, though under the condition that games offered in the service must be downloaded directly from the App Store, not from an all-in-one app.
Among the noteworthy gainers was Shares of ORCL, which was in focus after the company reported what Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow called a "surprisingly strong beat" and growth on licenses despite the continued macro uncertainty. NOG, which rose 1.3% after acquiring interests in the Delaware Basin and raising Q3 production guidance. Also higher was CX, which gained 8.3% in New York after Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaj Lippmann upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Among the notable losers was AMRS, which dropped 25.8% after responding to a lawsuit filed by Lavvan against the company for patent infringement and trade secret misappropriation. Also lower was CHWY, which declined 9.8% after reporting some cats have tried to take over the company with whiteclaws.
Despite a blowout fiscal Q4 report, PTON were 4.2% lower following last night's from the fitness products and services provider.
Elsewhere stocks were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.79% to around 3,260.35 while the Shenzhen component rose 1.57% to about 12,942.95. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.78% to end its trading day at 24,503.31.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index (93.35, +0.01, unch) reclaimed its overnight loss, gaining 0.7% for the week.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries ended the abbreviated week with modest gains across the curve. The cash session started with some light selling for the second day in a row, but the market recovered from the early dip with ease.

Commodity

Gold slipped on Friday on a lack of further stimulus from the European Central Bank and the U.S. government, but for the week the safe-haven metal was set to end higher. Crude remained on track for a second weekly drop as investors expected a global glut to persist if demand weakens further with rising COVID-19 cases in some countries.

Crypto

Bitcoin is struggling to gather upside traction despite repeated defense of support at $10,000. The top cryptocurrency’s sell-off from the August high of $12,476 looks to have come to a halt near $10,000 over the past seven days.

YTD

  • FAAMG + some penny stocks +21.0% YTD
  • Spoos +3.4% YTD
  • Old man -3.1% YTD
  • Russy -10.3% YTD

CPI

Total CPI increased 0.4% m/m while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.4%. Those gains left total CPI up 1.3% yyr and core CPI up 1.7% yyr.
The key takeaway from the report, which featured the largest increase in the index for used cars and trucks (+5.4%) since March 1969, is that the increase in the all items index was broad-based; nonetheless, annual inflation rates are still running well below 2.0%, so there is still more noise than bothersome policy signal in the August report.

IPO (Most Anticipated)

Week of Sep14-18
  • Company: AMWL Amwell (NYSE) | Leading telehealth company enabling digital delivery of care for healthcare’s key stakeholders | Initial Shares: 35.0 M | Initial Range: $14.00-16.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Piper Jaffray, UBS, Credit Suisse, Cowen
  • Company: BNL Broadstone Net Lease | REIT that acquires, owns, and manages primarily single-tenant commercial real estate properties | Initial Shares: 33.5 M | Initial Range: $17.00-19.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BMO Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley, Capital One Securities, Truist Securities
  • Company: FROG JFrog (Nasdaq) | Developer of an end-to-end, hybrid, universal DevOps platform | Initial Shares: 11.6 M | Initial Range: $33.00 -37.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BofA Securities
  • Company: SNOW Snowflake (NYSE) | Developer of a data cloud platform that enables customers to consolidate data into a single source to drive business insights | Initial Shares: 28.0 M | Initial Range: $75.00-85.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Allen & Co, Citigroup
  • Company: STEP StepStone Group (Nasdaq) | Global private markets investment firm | Initial Shares: 17.5 M | Initial Range: $15.00-17.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, UBS Investment Bank
  • Company: SUMO Sumo Logic (Nasdaq) | Pioneer of Continuous Intelligence, a new category of software, which enables organizations to address opportunities presented by digital transformation and cloud computing | Initial Shares: 14.8 M | Initial Range: $17.00-21.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RBC Capital, Jefferies
  • Company: U Unity Software (NYSE) | Leading platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D content | Initial Shares: 25.0 M | Initial Range: $34.00-42.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, Barclays, William Blair
Week of Sep21-25
  • Company: PLTR Palantir Technologies (NYSE) | Software developer for defense, intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and commercial enterprises | Initial Shares: 244.2 | Initial Range: NA | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Direct Listing

What's next?

Beer o'clock
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.41 seconds.
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DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
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I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (July Update)

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (July Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month 7 +71%
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here. If you're just joining us, this probably isn't what you think it is: it's more of a documentary than investing advice. See the rules of the Experiments here.
tl;dr: As of the end of July, the 2020 Top Ten Cryptos were up +71%. ETH best performer in July followed by XRP and BSV. Overall since Jan 2020: ETH moves into first place, followed by BSV. 100% of 2020 Top Ten are in positive territory, all ahead of Tether.
Over three years, July 2020 is the first month that the combined crypto Top Ten Portfolios have outperformed a hypothetical same approach with the S&P. Details:

Month Seven – UP 71%

https://preview.redd.it/iiyifztdzrg51.png?width=1132&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc7a653bd058f4664ad6443b590e368c58167fc
Last month, I warned the 2020 Top Ten to watch its back. After being ahead most of the year, the 2020 Top Ten has officially lost its status as the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments. Up +71% as of July, the 2019 Top Ten is now second to the 2019 Top Ten, which is up…. +72%.

Question of the month:

Which cryptocurrency surged in value after a TikTok challenge that encouraged users to buy went viral?

A) Dogecoin B) Chainlink C) Bitcoin D) Ethereum
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and June Winners and Losers

2020 Top Ten Rank
Another month of mostly downward movement: the “T”s (Tether and Tezos) both fell one spot. BNB dropped two spots and now is at the very edge of the Top Ten. XRP climbed one in the rankings, taking back third place from Tether. Regardless of how you feel about XRP, it was a bad sign to many crypto observers to find a stablcoin in the Top Three last month (no offense meant, USDT).
July WinnersETH, up a massive +55% in July. XRP and BSV tied for second place, both up +52% on the month.
July LosersTether. The second worst performing crypto, Tezos, finished the month up +19%.
Since COVID has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against themselves, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses at this point in the experiment. In a three way tie for first place we have ETH, Tether, and Tezos, each with two Ws. BSV and Tether have the most Ls – both have finished in last place three out of the first seven months of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

Overall update – ETH moves into first place, followed by BSV. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.

Ethereum has moved into a commanding lead, up +177% on the year, followed by BSV, up +141%. After three straight months in the lead, Tezos fell hard in July, now sitting in third place (although still up an impressive +124% in 2020). Discounting Tether (again, no offense Big-T), EOS (+27%) is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are either flat or in positive territory.

Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market gained more than $80B in July, and is now up over +80% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020.

Bitcoin dominance:

BitDom
BitDom finally budged: it fell about 2.5% percent to land at 62.3%, signaling a greater appetite for altcoins this month. The range up to this point in the year has been roughly 62% to 68%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,713, up +71%. It is no longer the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but isn’t too far behind: the 2019 group came in at +72% in July.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along:
ROI, month by month
Besides the zombie apocalypse blip in March, so far so good: all green is good to see and a nice change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between +7% in March and +71% in July.
So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,695‬ ($260+ $1,722 +$1,713).
That’s up about +23% for the three combined portfolios, compared to -10% last month. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I started keeping track in January 2020. The previous high was +13% back in January 2020.
Lost in the numbers? Here’s a new table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
Combined $3k ROI
That’s a +23% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While most have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have remained in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Let’s take a look at those five:

ETH then BTC well in front
There you have it: Ethereum (+98%) would have returned the most at this point, followed closely by BTC (+88%). Following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -23%. Many thanks to Reddit user u/sebikun for the idea for a new metric.
So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. Even with no end to the COVID pandemic in sight, the S&P continued its recovery. In July it moved into positive territory for the year.
S&P breaks even
Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +71%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,713.
The money I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1010 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. That’s a $703 difference on a $1k investment, the largest gap in favor of crypto all year.
But that’s just 2020. What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$220
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$310
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$10
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,540.
That $3,540 is up over +18% since January 2018, compared to a +23% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time.
Do you know what that means? That means we have a first this month: a 5% swing in favor of the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios!
As you’ll see in the table below, this is the first time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed a hypothetical identical investment in the S&P. This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just last month.
Crypto takes the lead

Implications/Observations:

The crypto market as a whole is up +81% since the beginning of the year compared to the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio which has gained +71%. For the third month in a row, focusing on the Top Ten cryptos has yielded less than the overall market.
This approach has seen mixed results with the 2020 group. For the first four months, the Top Ten outperformed the market as a whole. This was a bit of a surprise, as this strategy did not work out very well in the other experiment years. Although there are a few examples of the Top Ten strategy outperforming the overall market in the 2019 Top Ten Experiment, it’s interesting to note at no point in the first thirty-one months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. Not even once.

Conclusion:

July was undoubtedly a strong month in crypto. Where do we go from here? Do we consolidate for a time, fall back down, or continue the ascent? Will Bitcoin dominance continue to decline as altcoins receive more attention?
Final word: Please take care of yourselves and your neighbors. FYI – everyone is your neighbor.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.

And the Answer is…

A) Dogecoin
Much wow. A TikTok viral challenge drove up the price of Doge nearly 100% in early July.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

FED raised interest rates, Vietnam peaked

FED raised interest rates, Vietnam peaked
The latest developments from the US interest rate policies do not have much influence on Vietnam.
The home loan interest rate of 5% will be applied from 1/1/2018
Interest rates will stabilize and tend to decrease
Stable interest rate expectation
Solution of interest rate management with economic growth target
Improve the financial capacity of Vietnamese commercial banks
The move was not unexpected

https://preview.redd.it/ckstv10yk2u51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd8ff091fd35ceac3de6d68a18b06dbf838afc77
The US Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) ended 2017 with the third prime rate hike for the year, to 1.5%. This move did not surprise the international financial world, as the market had been forecasted in advance. Similarly, the latest developments from the US have not affected Vietnam much, even through 2017.
According to SSI Securities Company, the Fed rate hike did not have any noticeable impact on the global market, as the market has "absorbed" this move since September, after two adjustments of Fed this year.
The Fed's interest rates often directly affect interest rates and exchange rates in Vietnam. However, from the beginning of the year until now, interest rates and exchange rates have not changed much. According to the report of the National Financial Supervisory Commission on the economic situation in the first 11 months of the year, the interest rates of ordinary loans are popular at 9.3-11% for terms of 6 months or more. While the ceiling interest rate for short-term loans in 5 priority areas is 6.5%.
Place of credit conversion transaction: btc to paypal
Meanwhile, according to the State Bank branch report. In Ho Chi Minh City, the central bank's operating interest rate in 2017 tended to decrease. Specifically, the refinancing rate decreased by 25 basis points, to 6.25%; paper discount rate has a similar decrease, to 4.25%.
The exchange rate market also exhibits an unusual "quiet" compared to every year. Accordingly, the central rate increased by 1.27% compared to the end of 2016. And the exchange rate on the free market decreased by 1.38% (the selling rate), according to the State Bank branch in HCMC. Ho Chi Minh. According to SSI's statistics in the assessment report on the latest interest rate hike by the Fed, the exchange rate remains unchanged on the official market around 22,700 VND / USD, almost unchanged so far.

The reason why the market becomes so peaceful? In the international market, although the Fed tends to narrow monetary policy, the dollar is slightly lower than other currencies. Bloomberg's statistics show that the dollar has depreciated more than 7% against a basket of other major currencies in 2017 and is also the strongest decline in more than a decade.
The supply of USD is plentiful
The weak dollar in the international market also eased the pressure to devalue as we often saw many years ago. But the more important reason, it is because the supply of USD suddenly becomes more abundant than ever.
According to data from the General Department of Customs, by the end of November, Vietnam had a record trade surplus since 2006 (the time of joining the WTO) with 3.72 billion USD. On December 21, 2017, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Le Minh Hung said that the foreign exchange reserve fund had reached a record level of 48 billion USD, but in the last days of 2017, a new record was made: 51.5 billion USD. And Mr. Nguyen Hoang Minh, Deputy Director of the State Bank branch in City. Ho Chi Minh City, forecast amount of remittances poured into the city this year is estimated at 5.2 billion USD, up 200 million USD compared to last year.
However, there is still concern, as USD deposit rates in Vietnam have remained at 0% for more than 2 years. Mr. Nguyen Hoang Minh said that the Fed's move of 3 times to raise interest rates and is likely to continue to increase in 2018 has created some certain impacts, including foreign currency bleeding. According to Mr. Minh, experts and business circles should raise USD deposit interest rates to help the banking system take advantage of the greenback.
However, representatives of the State Bank of Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh also said that maintaining USD deposit interest rates at 0% has had many positive effects attached, typically many people switch from USD to VND savings.
During the whole year, the liquidity in the bank was stable and did not change much. According to recent observations of SSI, deposit rates started to increase slightly from November and this trend continues in December. “It is a cyclical factor. “Liquidity is a bit volatile in December, but it is mainly a cyclical factor. Banks may need more deposits to improve their safety ratios or to meet credit needs, ”said the SSI report.
In 2018, the Fed maintains tightening monetary policy with the expectation that interest rates will continue to increase by 2 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points in 2019. 2018 is also the time when Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will The seat must be given to Jerome Powell, who is currently voting in agreement with current Fed policies.
Financial markets in 2018 are also expected to be more volatile with more investment products attracting capital flows in the market like cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, Ms. Yellen confirmed that the Fed has no plans to consider issuing a similar currency, nor is it that Bitcoin.
submitted by Ill_Preparation_2814 to u/Ill_Preparation_2814 [link] [comments]

Flatten the Curve. #18. The current cold war between China and America explained. And how China was behind the 2008 Wall Street financial Crash. World War 3 is coming.

China, the USA, and the Afghanistan war are linked. And in order to get here, we will start there.
9-11 happened. Most of the planet mistakenly understood terrorists had struck a blow against Freedom and Capitalism and Democracy. It was time to invade Afghanistan. Yet all of the terrorists were linked to Saudi Arabia and not Afghanistan, that didn't make sense either. Yet they invaded to find Bin Laden, an ex CIA asset against the Soviet Union and it's subjugation of Afghanistan. The land in the middle of nowhere in relation to North America and the West. It was barren. A backwater without any strategic importance or natural resources.
Or was there?
The survey for rare earth elements was only made possible by the 2001 U.S. invasion, with work beginning in 2004. Mirzad says the Russians had already done significant surveying work during their military occupation of the country in the 1980s. Mirzad also toes the line for U.S. corporations, arguing, “The Afghan government should not touch the mining business. We have to give enough information to potential investors.”
Rare Earth Elements. The elements that make the information age possible. People could understand the First Gulf War and the Geopolitical importance of oil. That was easy, but it still didn't sound morally just to have a war for oil. It was too imperialist and so they fell in line and supported a war for Kuwaiti freedom instead, despite the obvious and public manipulation at the UN by Nayirah.
This is some of her testimony to the Human Rights Council.
While I was there, I saw the Iraqi soldiers come into the hospital with guns. They took the babies out of the incubators, took the incubators and left the children to die on the cold floor. It was horrifying. I could not help but think of my nephew who was born premature and might have died that day as well. After I left the hospital, some of my friends and I distributed flyers condemning the Iraqi invasion until we were warned we might be killed if the Iraqis saw us.
The Iraqis have destroyed everything in Kuwait. They stripped the supermarkets of food, the pharmacies of medicine, the factories of medical supplies, ransacked their houses and tortured neighbors and friends.
There was only one problem. She was the daughter of Saud Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. Furthermore, it was revealed that her testimony was organized as part of the Citizens for a Free Kuwait public relations campaign, which was run by the American public relations firm Hill & Knowlton for the Kuwaiti government (fun fact, Hill & Knowlton also have extensive ties with Bill Gates).
So the public was aghast at her testimony and supported the war against the mainly Soviet backed, but also American supported and Soviet backed Saddam Hussein, in his war against Iran, after the Iranians refused to Ally with American interests after the Islamic Revolution.
But that was oil, this was Rare Earth Elements. There was a reason the war was called, Operation Enduring Freedom. This natural resource was far more important in the long run. You couldn't have a security surveillance apparatus without it. And what was supposed to be a war on terror was in actuality a territorial occupation for resources.
Sleeping Dragon China is next, and where there's smoke, there's fire.
Let's go point form for clarity.
• China entered the rare earth market in the mid-1980s, at a time when the US was the major producer. But China soon caught up and became the production leader for rare earths. Its heavily state-supported strategy was aimed at dominating the global rare earth industry.
• 1989 Beijing’s Tiananmen Square spring. The U.S. government suspends military sales to Beijing and freezes relations.
• 1997. Clinton secures the release of Wei and Tiananmen Square protester Wang Dan. Beijing deports both dissidents to the United States. (If you don't understand these two were CIA assets working in China, you need to accept that not everything will be published. America wouldn't care about two political activists, but why would care about two intelligence operatives).
• March 1996. Taiwan’s First Free Presidential Vote.
• May 1999. America "accidently" bombs the Belgrade Chinese Embassy.
• 2002 Price competitiveness was hard for the USA to achieve due to low to non-existent Chinese environmental standards; as a result, the US finally stopped its rare earth production.
• October 2000. U.S. President Bill Clinton signs the U.S.-China Relations Act. China's take over of the market share in rare earth elements starts to increase.
• October 2001. Afghanistan war Enduring Freedom started to secure rare earth elements (Haven't you ever wondered how they could mobilize and invade so quickly? The military was already prepared).
• 2005. China establishes a monopoly on global production by keeping mineral prices low and then panics markets by introducing export quotas to raise prices by limiting supply.
• Rare Earth Elements. Prices go into the stratosphere (for example, dysprosium prices do a bitcoin, rocketing from $118/kg to $2,262/kg between 2008 and 2011).
• In a September 2005. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick initiates a strategic dialogue with China. This was presented as dialog to acknowledge China's emergence as a Superpower (which China probably insisted on), but it was about rare earth elements market price.
• October 2006. China allows North Korea to conduct its first nuclear test, China serves as a mediator to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with the USA.
• September 2006. American housing prices start to fall.
(At some point after this, secret negotiations must have become increasingly hostile).
• March 2007. China Increases Military Spending. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says China’s military buildup is “not consistent” with the country’s stated goal of a “peaceful rise.”
• Mid-2005 and mid-2006. China bought between $100b and $250 billion of US housing debt between mid-2005 and mid-2006. This debt was bought using the same financial instruments that caused the financial collapse.
• 2006. Housing prices started to fall for the first time in decades.
• Mid-2006 and mid-2007. China likely added another $390b to its reserves. "At the same time, if China stopped buying -- especially now, when the private market is clogged up -- US financial markets would really seize up." Council on Foreign Relations-2007 August
• February 27, 2007. Stock markets in China and the U.S. fell by the most since 2003. Investors leave the money market and flock to Government backed Treasury Bills.
I've never seen it like this before,'' said Jim Galluzzo, who began trading short-maturity Treasuries 20 years ago and now trades bills at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.Bills right now are trading like dot-coms.''
We had clients asking to be pulled out of money market funds and wanting to get into Treasuries,'' said Henley Smith, fixed-income manager in New York at Castleton Partners, which oversees about $150 million in bonds.People are buying T-bills because you know exactly what's in it.''
• February 13, 2008. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was enacted, which included a tax rebate. The total cost of this bill was projected at $152 billion for 2008. A December 2009 study found that only about one-third of the tax rebate was spent, providing only a modest amount of stimulus.
• September 2008. China Becomes Largest U.S. Foreign Creditor at 600 billion dollars.
• 2010. China’s market power peaked in when it reached a market share of around 97% of all rare earth mineral production. Outside of China, there were almost no other producers left.
Outside of China, the US is the second largest consumer of rare earths in the world behind Japan.
About 60% of US rare earth imports are used as catalysts for petroleum refining, making it the country’s major consumer of rare earths.
The US military also depends on rare earths. Many of the most advanced US weapon systems, including smart bombs, unmanned drones, cruise missiles, laser targeting, radar systems and the Joint Strike Fighter programme rely on rare earths. Against this background, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that “reliable access to the necessary material is a bedrock requirement for DOD”
• 2010. A trade dispute arose when the Chinese government reduced its export quotas by 40% in 2010, sending the rare earths prices in the markets outside China soaring. The government argued that the quotas were necessary to protect the environment.
• August 2010. China Becomes World’s Second-Largest Economy.
• November 2011. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlines a U.S. “pivot” to Asia. Clinton’s call for “increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region” is seen as a move to counter China’s growing clout.
• December 2011. U.S. President Barack Obama announces the United States and eight other nations have reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership later announces plans to deploy 2,500 marines in Australia, prompting criticism from Beijing.
• November 2012. China’s New Leadership. Xi Jinping replaces Hu Jintao as president, Communist Party general secretary, and chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi delivers a series of speeches on the “rejuvenation” of China.
• June 2013. U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “shirt-sleeves summit”
• May 19, 2014. A U.S. court indicts five Chinese hackers, allegedly with ties to China’s People’s Liberation Army, on charges of stealing trade technology from U.S. companies.
• November 12, 2014. Joint Climate Announcement. Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping issue a joint statement on climate change, pledging to reduce carbon emissions. (which very conveniently allows the quotas to fall and save pride for Xi).
• 2015. China drops the export quotas because in 2014, the WTO ruled against China.
• May 30, 2015 U.S. Warns China Over South China Sea. (China is trying to expand it's buffer zone to build a defense for the coming war).
• January 2016. The government to abolish the one-child policy, now allowing all families to have two children.
• February 9, 2017. Trump Affirms One China Policy After Raising Doubts.
• April 6 – 7, 2017. Trump Hosts Xi at Mar-a-Lago. Beijing and Washington to expand trade of products and services like beef, poultry, and electronic payments, though the countries do not address more contentious trade issues including aluminum, car parts, and steel.
• November 2017. President Xi meets with President Trump in another high profile summit.
• March 22, 2018. Trump Tariffs Target China. The White House alleges Chinese theft of U.S. technology and intellectual property. Coming on the heels of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the measures target goods including clothing, shoes, and electronics and restrict some Chinese investment in the United States.
• July 6, 2018 U.S.-China Trade War Escalates.
• September 2018. Modifications led to the exclusion of rare earths from the final list of products and they consequently were not subject to import tariffs imposed by the US government in September 2018.
• October 4, 2018. Pence Speech Signals Hard-Line Approach. He condemns what he calls growing Chinese military aggression, especially in the South China Sea, criticizes increased censorship and religious persecution by the Chinese government, and accuses China of stealing American intellectual property and interfering in U.S. elections.
• December 1, 2018. Canada Arrests Huawei Executive.
• March 6, 2019. Huawei Sues the United States.
• March 27 2019. India and the US signed an agreement to "strengthen bilateral security and civil nuclear cooperation" including the construction of six American nuclear reactors in India
• May 10, 2019. Trade War Intensifies.
• August 5, 2019. U.S. Labels China a Currency Manipulator.
• November 27, 2019. Trump Signs Bill Supporting Hong Kong Protesters. Chinese officials condemn the move, impose sanctions on several U.S.-based organizations, and suspend U.S. warship visits to Hong Kong.
• January 15, 2020. ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Signed. But the agreement maintains most tariffs and does not mention the Chinese government’s extensive subsidies. Days before the signing, the United States dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator.
• January 31, 2020. Tensions Soar Amid Coronavirus Pandemic.
• March 18, 2020. China Expels American Journalists. The Chinese government announces it will expel at least thirteen journalists from three U.S. newspapers—the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post—whose press credentials are set to expire in 2020. Beijing also demands that those outlets, as well as TIME and Voice of America, share information with the government about their operations in China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry says the moves are in response to the U.S. government’s decision earlier in the year to limit the number of Chinese journalists from five state-run media outlets in the United States to 100, down from 160, and designate those outlets as foreign missions.
And here we are. You may have noticed the Rare Earth Elements and the inclusion of Environmental Standards. Yes these are key to understanding the Geopolitical reality and importance of these events. There's a reason the one child policy stopped. Troop additions.
I believe our current political reality started at Tiananmen square. The protests were an American sponsored attempt at regime change after the failure to convince them to leave totalitarian communism and join a greater political framework.
Do I have proof? Yes.
China, as far as I'm concerned, was responsible for the 2008 economic crisis. The Rare Earth Elements were an attempt to weaken the States and strengthen themselves simultaneously. This stranglehold either forced America to trade with China, or the trade was an American Trojan horse to eventually collapse their economy and cause a revolution after Tiananmen Square failed. Does my second proposal sound far fetched? Didn't the economy just shut down in response to the epidemic? Aren't both sides blaming the other? At this POINT, the epidemic seems to be overstated doesn’t it? Don't the casualties tend to the elder demographic and those already weakened by a primary disease?
Exactly the kinds who wouldn't fight in a war.
Does this change some of my views on the possibility of upcoming catastrophes and reasons for certain events? No. This is Chess, and there are obvious moves in chess, hidden moves in chess, but the best moves involve peices which can be utilized in different ways if the board calls for it.
Is all what it seems? No.
I definitely changed a few previously held beliefs prior to today, and I would caution you in advance that you will find some previously held convictions challenged.
After uncovering what I did today, I would also strongly suggest reading information cautiously. This is all merely a culmination of ending the cold war, and once I have events laid out, you will see it as well.
At this moment, the end analysis is a war will start in the near future. This will be mainly for a few reasons, preemptive resource control for water and crops, population reduction can be achieved since we have too many people, not enough jobs, and upcoming resource scarcity.
Did you notice my omission of rare earth elements? This is because of Afghanistan. I would wager China or Russia is somehow supporting the continued resistance through Iran. But events are now accelerating with China because the western collation has already begun to build up their mines and start production.
Do you remember when Trump made a "joke" about buying Greenland? Yeah. It turns out that Greenland has one of the largest rare earth mineral deposits on the planet.
Take care. Be safe. Stay aware and be prepared.
This message not brought to you by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Elon Musk, Blackrock, Vangaurd, the Rockefeller Foundation, Rand Corporation, DARPA, Rothschilds, Agenda 21, Agenda 30, and ID 2020.
submitted by biggreekgeek to conspiracy [link] [comments]

From 10000 to 10 Million: Coin Circle KOL Happy Shares the Road of Gold Mining in China

From 10000 to 10 Million: Coin Circle KOL Happy Shares the Road of Gold Mining in China
On July 27,2020, Bitcoin soared from US $9900 to US $11400, a 15% increase in a single day, opening the first round of global cryptocurrency market outbreak after the epidemic.Since then, different currencies have been soaring in turn every day.A few days ago, I attended a private gathering of cryptocurrency circle in Silicon Valley, and got to know a veteran of currency circle named XX.XX is a China expert and an early investor of TRX, OMG and EOS. It started from $10000 and now has a value of more than $10 million. It is called China bitbutcher in a small circle.The author and XX talked about a lot of dry goods, now sorted out to share with you, interested can add my telegraph group(https://0.plus/bpopaha)Discuss it together.The following is the account in XX’s own words.
Firstly, you need to understand the market.
Some people call me China Bitbutcher. In fact, there are many people who make more money than me in the Chinese market. Although the projects invested are different, they all have one thing in common, that is, they all have a better understanding of the Chinese market. At least you have to install a Wechat. You see, I have added many groups of Chinese investors to collect information and study their investment characteristics. For example, this expression pack is very representative.

https://preview.redd.it/lf8vonlf5ft51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7821b57d41984254f8fc6643a5f084565db8749
"show-hand" here is the transliteration of show hand, which means that you can bet all your cash on a single coin. If you only bet on one coin, you will have either heaven or hell.Whenever a KOL starts to shout for orders, the retail investors in the community will rush to get into the gold and shout the slogan of "show-hand". The lucky ones who get into the gold earlier will get several times or even dozens of times (or higher) return on investment.
Similar to the "Beat Generation" born after World War II in the United States, today's young people in China are called "post-90s" and "post-00s". Although they don't have to worry about food and drink, their limited income is far behind the increase in urban house prices and living costs. Houses and cars are the necessary conditions for young Chinese men to marry their wives.As a result, these young people tend to be very aggressive in investment, and there are many people eager to make tens of thousands of dollars with thousands of dollars.At present, there are millions of investors in China's currency circle, which is equivalent to the total population of some small European countries. Behind this, there are tens of millions of stock investors who will turn to coin circle people at any time. Since the popularity of ICO in 2017, China has produced dozens of hundreds or even thousands of times projects such as Neo, TRX, ONT, etc., and tens of billions of dollars of funds have been taken out and deposited from the pockets of investors in the currency circle. At the same time, there are also a large number of gold miners (most of them are foreigners) who have absorbed a lot of money from China through ICO and obtained wealth freedom. Among them, EOS is a typical example. The financing time is as long as one year, and the financing scale is more than 2 billion US dollars, of which a large part is paid by Chinese young people. There is also a well-known KOL in China, who has been crazy about EOS, even calling out the slogan of "three waves of fighting to 1000 yuan (Note: 1000 yuan is equivalent to 143 US dollars, currently EOS is worth 3 dollars). However, such a crazy KOL still has the support of hundreds of thousands of fans. Fortunately, with so many fanatics, the EOS I held in the early stage could be safely and gradually shipped, with a comprehensive yield of 553%. It's not too much to say that it's collecting money on the ground. So if you take the same money and gamble with the gentlemen on Wall Street, you'd better take the same money to China’s currency circle market. By the way, there was also a big man in the currency circle in China who said that these retail investors were "idiot", "stupid people, lots of money, come quickly". I didn't believe it. However, at the end of 2017, I heard from my Chinese friends that I invested in a project called TRX. I only invested $5000, and finally I withdrew 100 times. 5000 US dollars turned into 500000 US dollars. Since then, I have fallen in love with this magic market.
Secondly, we should see the situation clearly.
A leader of China's democratic revolution once said a sentence that I like very much, which is called "the general trend of the world, the one who goes along will prosper, and the one who goes against will die." So before you pay, ask yourself a question: do you think the bull market has opened? Or is the bull market in the middle? This needs your own judgment, conform to the general trend to make money. In my opinion, at the present stage, two thirds of 2020 has passed. In the past eight months, the global epidemic broke out, the economy went down, the US stock market failed, the Olympic Games were postponed, and Bitcoin plummeted to 3800usdt.Under this undercurrent, hot money is irresistible, especially the savings of Chinese currency circle investors in the long bear market, which urgently needs an investment export. On the surface, this bull market is led by Ethereum, but in fact it is the result of a combination of multiple factors. One of the key points is to invest in customers' wallets. With Bitcoin starting on July 21, the current high level of 12000 or so, most of the mainstream currencies in the market have completed the round of rise. Meanwhile, the defi plate is extremely hot, and the future market will continue to be bullish. Judging the situation is the basic logic of our investment. If this does not hold up, there is no need to look down.
Thirdly, choose potential currencies.
If you also agree that the bull market will continue, then you should take advantage of this wave of heat, ambush some hot currencies in advance, and then wait for the market makers to stir up the market and plate, attract a large number of retail investors to follow suit, so as to easily make money in the market. At present, it is obvious that the market has entered the second typical stage: bitcoin trading horizontally and counterfeit currency rising in turn. Almost every day comes the news that the counterfeit currency of XX is about to soar, and then investors who build their positions ahead of time are beaming with joy to show their income map in the major communities.
Please note that! At this time, most of the unqualified investors are following the trend and buying without their own opinions. It is true that some people have made a lot of money, but the risks have multiplied. Because while they are making money, they are also carrying sedan chairs for the makers. But a small number of "smart people" don't think so. They firmly believe that the safest way is to make money within their scope. One of the important ideas is to explore the underrated high-quality projects that have not yet started to rise in the bull market, complete the warehouse building at the low level, and get the early hundred times chips.
Fourth, how to find a hundred times currency.
As we all know, 100 times coin has the following characteristics: it has a perfect business model and pass card model, has its own application and ecology, and has a group of loyal users and community consensus. This is the fundamental reason why I found TRX, OMG, ONT and other currencies. There is an outstanding businessman named Jack Ma in China. He put forward a concept called "small is beautiful", which means that the best investment target is a project with small scale and high marginal profit. Just in the past two days, I downloaded an investment advisory app called coin bubble through China's wechat group, and also sent a token. I think it is small and beautiful according to my own definition.

https://preview.redd.it/j4y0jxlg5ft51.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=14fb7e5786c8d310a2ad522aebfd25c09da1dc32
According to the official introduction, the coin bubble is a mobile terminal entrance for digital financial investors. It is committed to creating a rich, interesting and practical digital financial investment consultant ecosystem, helping new users of the digital financial investment circle to quickly integrate into the circle and culture, improve their investment skills and obtain better investment returns. The goal of currency bubble is to become the first stop for traditional financial investors to enter the digital financial world and the first entrance for incremental users and incremental funds. The concept is quite grand, but in a word, the team has made a consultant app for coin circle investment and built an active community of crypto asset enthusiasts. Through the mode of knowledge payment or commission, KOL at the head of the coin circle helps their fans to purchase crypto assets and derivatives with zero threshold, and obtain commission income from it.

https://preview.redd.it/a0h0bu2h5ft51.png?width=831&format=png&auto=webp&s=36f26e4869ee1b063022a46767e5fdbd7a2081a4
Different from some projects on the market that often claim to be hundreds of thousands of users and start to issue money in the air stage, the money bubble has been done as a traditional Internet project from the beginning. The team itself is not short of money, and has not raised a lot of money in the initial stage. Instead, it only focuses on the perspective of resource exchange from the perspective of Genesis fund, alpha-coin fund and Continue Capital and other cryptocurrency capital parties symbolically took some start-up funds in order to better utilize the latter's extensive network resources in the currency circle. According to a friend who has a good relationship with the core team, the management of the currency bubble is extremely low-key, and rarely appears in front of the currency circle media. The team has always believed in the principle of product first, and has little interest in marketing. Just as soon as the app 1.0 version was launched, it caused a widespread sensation in the currency circle, and even was immediately plagiarized at pixel level by another well-known giant app two weeks later. But the team just said in the internal meeting, copy it, see whether you copy fast or we innovate fast. As a result, when app2.0 was released, the coin recommendation function was once again popular, absorbing countless powder, and it was still copied by several friends. However, this kind of plagiarism can not last for a long time, because the money bubble depends not only on the function innovation, but also on the community reputation. The Internet has such Matthew effect, and the head app is always strong.
At present, the coin bubble has initially established a product matrix of currency recommendation, spot strategy, contract strategy and communication community. Investors, KOL, exchanges and project parties in the currency circle can take what they need and get the resources they want. At present, money bubble has been the first place in the investment advisory track by relying on natural flow and word-of-mouth propaganda. Many of the original friends who only relied on plagiarism have disappeared. At present, there are about 3000 KOLs with different levels in the currency bubble, which continuously release spot currency, contract strategy and potential currency on app. Online, hundreds of thousands of users can easily find KOL with high success rate and stable yield through the currency bubble platform to carry out documentary operation to obtain profits. Offline, the coin bubble has dozens of official wechat groups and hundreds of alliance groups, radiating millions of users in the currency circle. Currency bubble has become the first professional community in China's domestic currency circle.

https://preview.redd.it/kjlb2ssh5ft51.png?width=165&format=png&auto=webp&s=442e8c22659fc29c1e0cb8e4e066795b9896cdbd
Currency recommendation plate spot plate contract plate

https://preview.redd.it/3kz5uu7i5ft51.png?width=183&format=png&auto=webp&s=95b6d1665dc61768679160fd2fb234cf55ad48c3
Money bubble online community currency bubble wechat community
In order to better integrate and match the resources in the ecosystem, coin bubble launched token BPOP with the same name in a low-key manner in 19 years, but it has not been vigorously promoted. This is also in line with the team's low-key temperament of not lacking money, not promoting and only making products with heart. According to internal information, BPOP token will be used for the following purposes:
First, you can use BPOP to subscribe to KOL's trading strategy. Previously, in order to comply in China, BPOP has been using French currency to settle Commission. However, the team may have considered the subsequent global promotion, and it is time to introduce ecological token for internal settlement. The good news is that the English version of coin bubble was launched in early September, which will better serve the global English speaking users in North America and Europe. At the same time, the project side also said that it would launch multi language versions such as Japanese version, Korean version and Latin version as soon as possible, so as to provide accurate investment advisory services for users in more regions of the world.
Secondly, BPOP can be used to offset the service charge of the platform.This seems to be consistent with the strategy of the traditional exchange and the traditional investment consulting company, but in fact, the Commission is charged only when the strategy is profitable. This is totally different from the traditional one. It is a killing strategy created from the perspective of investors in the currency circle. As we know, the vast majority of the profits of exchanges and consulting companies come from the handling fees for ensuring the collection of goods during drought and flood, especially for futures contracts, which are extremely high. This small fee hides the ambition of the currency bubble to subvert the status quo of the industry. Now there is a popular word called dimension reduction strike. It is the Internet that kills physical stores, and takeaway is used to kill instant noodles. Is it possible that the person who kills the exchange is such a latecomer?
Thirdly, BPOP can be used for position dividend. As mentioned above, the money bubble is set up according to the traditional Internet companies, and has its own stable source of income. Besides the platform Commission, a large part of it comes from the realization of traffic, that is, advertising revenue. Money bubble has served many star customers, such as OKEX, Bybit, MXC, famous project parties such as STPT, AKRO, DOS, ARPA, etc., and has reached hundreds of customers. Relying on its own flow advantages, the coin bubble provides accurate diversion and product promotion services for customers, matches high-quality investors in the currency circle for high-quality project parties and exchanges, and achieves a win-win situation. The subsequent position is equivalent to holding currency bubble stock, which will continue to enjoy the income and dividend of currency bubble.
According to informed sources, BPOP will develop new products in combination with the current defi hot spots, and BPOP will also be the only value medium in the product ecology of defi, which means that the higher the demand for products, the stronger the price support of BPOP.
- BPSwap
BPSwap is an asset exchange platform, which can be used for token exchange of any public chain agreement. In the initial stage of the product, BPOP will be used as the main exchange target, i.e. eth / BPOP, TRX / BPOP and other transaction pairs. In the later stage, transactions between different currencies and flash exchange functions will be gradually opened;
When a general investor subscribes to KOL's portfolio with BPOP, he / she can use BPSwap for trading exchange, and can also obtain income by providing transaction liquidity, which can not only quickly buy "wealth password" but also obtain additional income by using "wealth password";
The main functions of BPSwap are as follows:
1)Provide various platform data. Such as liquidity pool data, convertible currency pairs, exchange currency pair liquidity and transaction volume data;
Exchange mechanism of transaction currency. In the initial stage, erc-20 or trc-20 will be opened to exchange currency pairs for BPOP transactions. Any user can view KOL recommended currency on BPOP platform and conduct transaction exchange directly;
2)Liquidity pool reward and new liquidity token. Any user can provide liquidity for different trading currency pairs, increase or remove assets in the liquidity pool. At the same time, the platform will issue a new liquidity token bpop-lp to reward users who provide liquidity for trading currency pairs. Bpop-lp can be exchanged with BPOP / USDT / eth;
3)Flash cash function. Quick exchange of small assets.
In a word, BPSwap can make the users of currency bubble realize all kinds of "one-step" needs, from buying currency, to checking and recommending currency, to asset transaction and exchange, etc., so as to realize the closed-loop use of digital currency. As the only value medium of BPSwap, BPOP will be used by more and more users with the maturity of products, and the price will rise.
Finally, BPOP will also realize the interesting functions of internal users such as reward and props purchase, which may be related to the next blockbuster version. I don't know the details, so I won't make a wild guess.
The above is basically from the product, operation and technical aspects of the project analysis, but these alone are not enough, when we choose the investment target, we also need to carefully analyze the token situation, in order to draw a more accurate conclusion.These analyses are boring, but they are often critical. The reason is exactly the same when we analyze other currencies according to the method I said.
The reason why bitcoin has become the favorite of investors is that it can not be issued more shares and has the characteristics of unlimited deflation. Although BPOP cannot be dug out, its deflation is more fierce and fierce. I can easily find out that the current circulation of BPOP is extremely limited after a large number of lock ups and multiple destruction of BPOP by combining the announcement issued by the currency bubble and the data on the chain. The currency distribution of BPOP is shown in the figure. The orange part is the market circulation volume, accounting for 10%.The other blue parts are those in lock / destroyed / to be destroyed.
Currency bubble contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a
As can be seen from the figure, the total amount of BPOP is 1 billion. Among them, the foundation has actively destroyed 500 million, ecological destruction has reached 100 million, team lock up 200 million, private placement has not been issued and destroyed by 42.4 million. The remaining cornerstone investment is 100 million and the market is 57.6 million. At present, there is only 157.6 million circulation in the market. According to the official announcement, the government has been using the business profits to buy back from the secondary market. At present, the government has successively bought back about 60 million, and the real circulation in the market is only about 97 million tokens.
In addition, the project side's goal is to continue to buy back to 147.6 million and then destroy all the tokens, and all the tokens will be deflated to 10 million. According to the current real circulation of 97 million, the current CBX.ONE Its latest trading price is 0.005usdt, and its circulation market value is about 485000u. Compared with its current user volume and business volume, it is in a seriously underestimated state, and there is a huge space for imagination in the future. At present, the price is at a historical low price, which conforms to all my definitions of small and beautiful.
To sum up, BPOP meets all the characteristics of this bull market
- The business model, application and ecology are complete, and a large number of landing products are used by users;
- The market value of project token is small, but the project investment institutions are strong;
- The project team has deep experience in the blockchain industry and is keen on doing practical things.
- The direction of the project is in line with the hot spots of the current bull market.
There is a well-known saying in China's retail circle, "hold on, the team is working." On the one hand, it means that the team only focuses on the products and does not care about the price performance of the secondary market; on the other hand, it means that the project team is really pushing the whole product forward and the price has strong support. However, as long as there are specific landing products and a large number of users use them, the currency price will naturally attract other hot money to come in and raise the price. After all, the secondary market is just a capital game, and the coin bubble project meets this condition. The products are developed in an orderly way, and the market value is still so small. It is very easy for BPOP to rise several times or dozens of times in this bull market.
At present, BPOP passes can be found in the decentralized exchange uniswap (search BPOP or contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a) and the centralized exchange Dubai compliance exchange cbx.com Trading. Those who are interested can learn about it by themselves. Of course, before buying, you can also go to its official website(http://www.bpop.io)Download the app to experience it. By the way, I tried to recharge 1000 usdt, and now I have made more than 300 usdt. Of course, some secondary pages still have a lot of Chinese, which is a little difficult to watch. It is said that an optimized version of the English version will be released soon, and everyone can experience it at that time.
Finally, I would like to remind you that although the money in China's currency circle is relatively easy to earn, it is also a high-risk investment variety. Before you enter this market, please be sure to follow the above-mentioned method to deeply understand the Chinese market and analyze the currency you like in detail. If you have any questions, please feel free to communicate with me.
submitted by Amakiir_crypto to u/Amakiir_crypto [link] [comments]

From 10000 to 10 Million: Coin Circle KOL Happy Shares the Road of Gold Mining in China

From 10000 to 10 Million: Coin Circle KOL Happy Shares the Road of Gold Mining in China
On July 27,2020, Bitcoin soared from US $9900 to US $11400, a 15% increase in a single day, opening the first round of global cryptocurrency market outbreak after the epidemic.Since then, different currencies have been soaring in turn every day.A few days ago, I attended a private gathering of cryptocurrency circle in Silicon Valley, and got to know a veteran of currency circle named XX.XX is a China expert and an early investor of TRX, OMG and EOS. It started from $10000 and now has a value of more than $10 million. It is called China bitbutcher in a small circle.The author and XX talked about a lot of dry goods, now sorted out to share with you, interested can add my telegraph group(https://0.plus/bpopaha)Discuss it together.The following is the account in XX’s own words.
Firstly, you need to understand the market.
Some people call me China Bitbutcher. In fact, there are many people who make more money than me in the Chinese market. Although the projects invested are different, they all have one thing in common, that is, they all have a better understanding of the Chinese market. At least you have to install a Wechat. You see, I have added many groups of Chinese investors to collect information and study their investment characteristics. For example, this expression pack is very representative.

https://preview.redd.it/h2m1ipw7ift51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=e681be2e89e93d8916e2711a1ec7fa4f7e5b5aa4
"show-hand" here is the transliteration of show hand, which means that you can bet all your cash on a single coin. If you only bet on one coin, you will have either heaven or hell.Whenever a KOL starts to shout for orders, the retail investors in the community will rush to get into the gold and shout the slogan of "show-hand". The lucky ones who get into the gold earlier will get several times or even dozens of times (or higher) return on investment.
Similar to the "Beat Generation" born after World War II in the United States, today's young people in China are called "post-90s" and "post-00s". Although they don't have to worry about food and drink, their limited income is far behind the increase in urban house prices and living costs. Houses and cars are the necessary conditions for young Chinese men to marry their wives.As a result, these young people tend to be very aggressive in investment, and there are many people eager to make tens of thousands of dollars with thousands of dollars.At present, there are millions of investors in China's currency circle, which is equivalent to the total population of some small European countries. Behind this, there are tens of millions of stock investors who will turn to coin circle people at any time. Since the popularity of ICO in 2017, China has produced dozens of hundreds or even thousands of times projects such as Neo, TRX, ONT, etc., and tens of billions of dollars of funds have been taken out and deposited from the pockets of investors in the currency circle. At the same time, there are also a large number of gold miners (most of them are foreigners) who have absorbed a lot of money from China through ICO and obtained wealth freedom. Among them, EOS is a typical example. The financing time is as long as one year, and the financing scale is more than 2 billion US dollars, of which a large part is paid by Chinese young people. There is also a well-known KOL in China, who has been crazy about EOS, even calling out the slogan of "three waves of fighting to 1000 yuan (Note: 1000 yuan is equivalent to 143 US dollars, currently EOS is worth 3 dollars). However, such a crazy KOL still has the support of hundreds of thousands of fans. Fortunately, with so many fanatics, the EOS I held in the early stage could be safely and gradually shipped, with a comprehensive yield of 553%. It's not too much to say that it's collecting money on the ground. So if you take the same money and gamble with the gentlemen on Wall Street, you'd better take the same money to China’s currency circle market. By the way, there was also a big man in the currency circle in China who said that these retail investors were "idiot", "stupid people, lots of money, come quickly". I didn't believe it. However, at the end of 2017, I heard from my Chinese friends that I invested in a project called TRX. I only invested $5000, and finally I withdrew 100 times. 5000 US dollars turned into 500000 US dollars. Since then, I have fallen in love with this magic market.
Secondly, we should see the situation clearly.
A leader of China's democratic revolution once said a sentence that I like very much, which is called "the general trend of the world, the one who goes along will prosper, and the one who goes against will die." So before you pay, ask yourself a question: do you think the bull market has opened? Or is the bull market in the middle? This needs your own judgment, conform to the general trend to make money. In my opinion, at the present stage, two thirds of 2020 has passed. In the past eight months, the global epidemic broke out, the economy went down, the US stock market failed, the Olympic Games were postponed, and Bitcoin plummeted to 3800usdt.Under this undercurrent, hot money is irresistible, especially the savings of Chinese currency circle investors in the long bear market, which urgently needs an investment export. On the surface, this bull market is led by Ethereum, but in fact it is the result of a combination of multiple factors. One of the key points is to invest in customers' wallets. With Bitcoin starting on July 21, the current high level of 12000 or so, most of the mainstream currencies in the market have completed the round of rise. Meanwhile, the defi plate is extremely hot, and the future market will continue to be bullish. Judging the situation is the basic logic of our investment. If this does not hold up, there is no need to look down.
Thirdly, choose potential currencies.
If you also agree that the bull market will continue, then you should take advantage of this wave of heat, ambush some hot currencies in advance, and then wait for the market makers to stir up the market and plate, attract a large number of retail investors to follow suit, so as to easily make money in the market. At present, it is obvious that the market has entered the second typical stage: bitcoin trading horizontally and counterfeit currency rising in turn. Almost every day comes the news that the counterfeit currency of XX is about to soar, and then investors who build their positions ahead of time are beaming with joy to show their income map in the major communities.
Please note that! At this time, most of the unqualified investors are following the trend and buying without their own opinions. It is true that some people have made a lot of money, but the risks have multiplied. Because while they are making money, they are also carrying sedan chairs for the makers. But a small number of "smart people" don't think so. They firmly believe that the safest way is to make money within their scope. One of the important ideas is to explore the underrated high-quality projects that have not yet started to rise in the bull market, complete the warehouse building at the low level, and get the early hundred times chips.
Fourth, how to find a hundred times currency.
As we all know, 100 times coin has the following characteristics: it has a perfect business model and pass card model, has its own application and ecology, and has a group of loyal users and community consensus. This is the fundamental reason why I found TRX, OMG, ONT and other currencies. There is an outstanding businessman named Jack Ma in China. He put forward a concept called "small is beautiful", which means that the best investment target is a project with small scale and high marginal profit. Just in the past two days, I downloaded an investment advisory app called coin bubble through China's wechat group, and also sent a token. I think it is small and beautiful according to my own definition.

https://preview.redd.it/fr4f3vy8ift51.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0156a593cb9525e1c9ea158961d13fb29db7471
According to the official introduction, the coin bubble is a mobile terminal entrance for digital financial investors. It is committed to creating a rich, interesting and practical digital financial investment consultant ecosystem, helping new users of the digital financial investment circle to quickly integrate into the circle and culture, improve their investment skills and obtain better investment returns. The goal of currency bubble is to become the first stop for traditional financial investors to enter the digital financial world and the first entrance for incremental users and incremental funds. The concept is quite grand, but in a word, the team has made a consultant app for coin circle investment and built an active community of crypto asset enthusiasts. Through the mode of knowledge payment or commission, KOL at the head of the coin circle helps their fans to purchase crypto assets and derivatives with zero threshold, and obtain commission income from it.

https://preview.redd.it/zb9rc4f9ift51.png?width=831&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7c749eff3bef31e4733b320864d8454c413b41c
Different from some projects on the market that often claim to be hundreds of thousands of users and start to issue money in the air stage, the money bubble has been done as a traditional Internet project from the beginning. The team itself is not short of money, and has not raised a lot of money in the initial stage. Instead, it only focuses on the perspective of resource exchange from the perspective of Genesis fund, alpha-coin fund and Continue Capital and other cryptocurrency capital parties symbolically took some start-up funds in order to better utilize the latter's extensive network resources in the currency circle. According to a friend who has a good relationship with the core team, the management of the currency bubble is extremely low-key, and rarely appears in front of the currency circle media. The team has always believed in the principle of product first, and has little interest in marketing. Just as soon as the app 1.0 version was launched, it caused a widespread sensation in the currency circle, and even was immediately plagiarized at pixel level by another well-known giant app two weeks later. But the team just said in the internal meeting, copy it, see whether you copy fast or we innovate fast. As a result, when app2.0 was released, the coin recommendation function was once again popular, absorbing countless powder, and it was still copied by several friends. However, this kind of plagiarism can not last for a long time, because the money bubble depends not only on the function innovation, but also on the community reputation. The Internet has such Matthew effect, and the head app is always strong.
At present, the coin bubble has initially established a product matrix of currency recommendation, spot strategy, contract strategy and communication community. Investors, KOL, exchanges and project parties in the currency circle can take what they need and get the resources they want. At present, money bubble has been the first place in the investment advisory track by relying on natural flow and word-of-mouth propaganda. Many of the original friends who only relied on plagiarism have disappeared. At present, there are about 3000 KOLs with different levels in the currency bubble, which continuously release spot currency, contract strategy and potential currency on app. Online, hundreds of thousands of users can easily find KOL with high success rate and stable yield through the currency bubble platform to carry out documentary operation to obtain profits. Offline, the coin bubble has dozens of official wechat groups and hundreds of alliance groups, radiating millions of users in the currency circle. Currency bubble has become the first professional community in China's domestic currency circle.

https://preview.redd.it/6udf0s5aift51.png?width=165&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c5b1d58821609b78ce95c20ca2d5f6599b459f7
Currency recommendation plate spot plate contract plate

https://preview.redd.it/2cv81lmaift51.png?width=183&format=png&auto=webp&s=94492c01e59df35a5ee34b7e2fd66e8bdce93ba3
Money bubble online community currency bubble wechat community
In order to better integrate and match the resources in the ecosystem, coin bubble launched token BPOP with the same name in a low-key manner in 19 years, but it has not been vigorously promoted. This is also in line with the team's low-key temperament of not lacking money, not promoting and only making products with heart. According to internal information, BPOP token will be used for the following purposes:
First, you can use BPOP to subscribe to KOL's trading strategy. Previously, in order to comply in China, BPOP has been using French currency to settle Commission. However, the team may have considered the subsequent global promotion, and it is time to introduce ecological token for internal settlement. The good news is that the English version of coin bubble was launched in early September, which will better serve the global English speaking users in North America and Europe. At the same time, the project side also said that it would launch multi language versions such as Japanese version, Korean version and Latin version as soon as possible, so as to provide accurate investment advisory services for users in more regions of the world.
Secondly, BPOP can be used to offset the service charge of the platform.This seems to be consistent with the strategy of the traditional exchange and the traditional investment consulting company, but in fact, the Commission is charged only when the strategy is profitable. This is totally different from the traditional one. It is a killing strategy created from the perspective of investors in the currency circle. As we know, the vast majority of the profits of exchanges and consulting companies come from the handling fees for ensuring the collection of goods during drought and flood, especially for futures contracts, which are extremely high. This small fee hides the ambition of the currency bubble to subvert the status quo of the industry. Now there is a popular word called dimension reduction strike. It is the Internet that kills physical stores, and takeaway is used to kill instant noodles. Is it possible that the person who kills the exchange is such a latecomer?
Thirdly, BPOP can be used for position dividend. As mentioned above, the money bubble is set up according to the traditional Internet companies, and has its own stable source of income. Besides the platform Commission, a large part of it comes from the realization of traffic, that is, advertising revenue. Money bubble has served many star customers, such as OKEX, Bybit, MXC, famous project parties such as STPT, AKRO, DOS, ARPA, etc., and has reached hundreds of customers. Relying on its own flow advantages, the coin bubble provides accurate diversion and product promotion services for customers, matches high-quality investors in the currency circle for high-quality project parties and exchanges, and achieves a win-win situation. The subsequent position is equivalent to holding currency bubble stock, which will continue to enjoy the income and dividend of currency bubble.
According to informed sources, BPOP will develop new products in combination with the current defi hot spots, and BPOP will also be the only value medium in the product ecology of defi, which means that the higher the demand for products, the stronger the price support of BPOP.
- BPSwap
BPSwap is an asset exchange platform, which can be used for token exchange of any public chain agreement. In the initial stage of the product, BPOP will be used as the main exchange target, i.e. eth / BPOP, TRX / BPOP and other transaction pairs. In the later stage, transactions between different currencies and flash exchange functions will be gradually opened;
When a general investor subscribes to KOL's portfolio with BPOP, he / she can use BPSwap for trading exchange, and can also obtain income by providing transaction liquidity, which can not only quickly buy "wealth password" but also obtain additional income by using "wealth password";
The main functions of BPSwap are as follows:
1)Provide various platform data. Such as liquidity pool data, convertible currency pairs, exchange currency pair liquidity and transaction volume data;
Exchange mechanism of transaction currency. In the initial stage, erc-20 or trc-20 will be opened to exchange currency pairs for BPOP transactions. Any user can view KOL recommended currency on BPOP platform and conduct transaction exchange directly;
2)Liquidity pool reward and new liquidity token. Any user can provide liquidity for different trading currency pairs, increase or remove assets in the liquidity pool. At the same time, the platform will issue a new liquidity token bpop-lp to reward users who provide liquidity for trading currency pairs. Bpop-lp can be exchanged with BPOP / USDT / eth;
3)Flash cash function. Quick exchange of small assets.
In a word, BPSwap can make the users of currency bubble realize all kinds of "one-step" needs, from buying currency, to checking and recommending currency, to asset transaction and exchange, etc., so as to realize the closed-loop use of digital currency. As the only value medium of BPSwap, BPOP will be used by more and more users with the maturity of products, and the price will rise.
Finally, BPOP will also realize the interesting functions of internal users such as reward and props purchase, which may be related to the next blockbuster version. I don't know the details, so I won't make a wild guess.
The above is basically from the product, operation and technical aspects of the project analysis, but these alone are not enough, when we choose the investment target, we also need to carefully analyze the token situation, in order to draw a more accurate conclusion.These analyses are boring, but they are often critical. The reason is exactly the same when we analyze other currencies according to the method I said.
The reason why bitcoin has become the favorite of investors is that it can not be issued more shares and has the characteristics of unlimited deflation. Although BPOP cannot be dug out, its deflation is more fierce and fierce. I can easily find out that the current circulation of BPOP is extremely limited after a large number of lock ups and multiple destruction of BPOP by combining the announcement issued by the currency bubble and the data on the chain. The currency distribution of BPOP is shown in the figure. The orange part is the market circulation volume, accounting for 10%.The other blue parts are those in lock / destroyed / to be destroyed.
Currency bubble contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a
As can be seen from the figure, the total amount of BPOP is 1 billion. Among them, the foundation has actively destroyed 500 million, ecological destruction has reached 100 million, team lock up 200 million, private placement has not been issued and destroyed by 42.4 million. The remaining cornerstone investment is 100 million and the market is 57.6 million. At present, there is only 157.6 million circulation in the market. According to the official announcement, the government has been using the business profits to buy back from the secondary market. At present, the government has successively bought back about 60 million, and the real circulation in the market is only about 97 million tokens.
In addition, the project side's goal is to continue to buy back to 147.6 million and then destroy all the tokens, and all the tokens will be deflated to 10 million. According to the current real circulation of 97 million, the current CBX.ONE Its latest trading price is 0.005usdt, and its circulation market value is about 485000u. Compared with its current user volume and business volume, it is in a seriously underestimated state, and there is a huge space for imagination in the future. At present, the price is at a historical low price, which conforms to all my definitions of small and beautiful.
To sum up, BPOP meets all the characteristics of this bull market
- The business model, application and ecology are complete, and a large number of landing products are used by users;
- The market value of project token is small, but the project investment institutions are strong;
- The project team has deep experience in the blockchain industry and is keen on doing practical things.
- The direction of the project is in line with the hot spots of the current bull market.
There is a well-known saying in China's retail circle, "hold on, the team is working." On the one hand, it means that the team only focuses on the products and does not care about the price performance of the secondary market; on the other hand, it means that the project team is really pushing the whole product forward and the price has strong support. However, as long as there are specific landing products and a large number of users use them, the currency price will naturally attract other hot money to come in and raise the price. After all, the secondary market is just a capital game, and the coin bubble project meets this condition. The products are developed in an orderly way, and the market value is still so small. It is very easy for BPOP to rise several times or dozens of times in this bull market.
At present, BPOP passes can be found in the decentralized exchange uniswap (search BPOP or contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a) and the centralized exchange Dubai compliance exchange cbx.com Trading. Those who are interested can learn about it by themselves. Of course, before buying, you can also go to its official website(http://www.bpop.io)Download the app to experience it. By the way, I tried to recharge 1000 usdt, and now I have made more than 300 usdt. Of course, some secondary pages still have a lot of Chinese, which is a little difficult to watch. It is said that an optimized version of the English version will be released soon, and everyone can experience it at that time.
Finally, I would like to remind you that although the money in China's currency circle is relatively easy to earn, it is also a high-risk investment variety. Before you enter this market, please be sure to follow the above-mentioned method to deeply understand the Chinese market and analyze the currency you like in detail. If you have any questions, please feel free to communicate with me.
submitted by Holimion_Bitcoin to u/Holimion_Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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