I Quit My Job, Jotted Down Some Ideas, Hired a Lawyer... And Now, I'm Here to Ask Reddit - Would Any Miners or Crypto-Currency Enthusiasts Be Interested In Supporting or Opening A Franchise? More Details In Text
First, I want to thank the /BitcoinMining, /LitecoinMining, /scryptmining, and any of the other mining reddits that I participated or lurked in! If it wasn't for all of the the information I gathered here, I wouldn't have been able to make my numbers and formulas to make all of this happen! I figured it would be safe to post this in /Bitcoin.. since so many folks may still have this in their feed with other cryptos... and I really didn't want to do a lot of "x/post from ... " in other reddits. =) Several months ago, I left my job to spend more time with my family, since my mining hardware was making more than my salary, and my office was a 2-hour commute (one way) from home. It. Was. AWESOME!!! I was taking the kids to school and picking them up, again! I finally got to spend some lunches with my wife! DISC GOLF!! Now, I've never been one to "rest on my laurels" for too long. I was really getting bored around the house after a week or two. There's only so much disc-golf to play when all of your friends are 9-5ers. I knew I wanted to do something more with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency... but I was trying to figure out what would be a "good idea". I had a few plans... website to sell/eBay GPU rigs... B2B service to encourage crypto use at local businesses... but nothing really "jumped", or got me really excited. Another friend of mine was just opening an upscale vapor (e-cig) shop, Vape South. I've known him and his significant other for 8-9 years, and had worked a retail store with him, before... so I thought "Why not?". I love working with customers, face-to-face... sales, retail, marketing... it would be fun! And, it has been! T and K have been great, and it's been a blast helping them get their own business and dreams off the ground and running! It's always awesome to see people's efforts and honesty do a big "karma blast", and reward them with a profitable business and great clientèle. It's neat to see everyone who's interested in vaping, and talk to them about "how they got interested in it", help them find better hardware, and spreading info about healthier smoking alternatives... see people drop smoking all together (hint, hint) ... and that's when it hit me... THIS IS WHAT CRYPTO-CURRENCY NEEDS So, I started piecing together this concept of MeetSpace Crypto. I want to provide a cookie-cutter, franchise-model retail opportunity for folks who are excited about crypto-currencies, and want to maintain a local venue for reddit/Bitcoin/(insert Alt-Coin)/mining/trading meetups (think a Starbucks-meets-B&N-comfy-meeting-space), while selling the mining equipment that is run in-house. Look... CoinDesk just published an article about 'The Five Biggest Threats Facing Bitcoin'. I honestly think that MeetSpace Crypto could help with a lot of this!
The centralization of bitcoin
If we can put mining hardware in more peoples hands, and promote p2pool mining of ALL crypto-currencies, it will benefit cryptos all around.
THIS! We need happy, smiling "Crypto Faces" out there! In meat-space!! I want DOGE-heads in their NASCAR stuff, and folks that have several "I Love Bitcoin" shirts in their closets working at these stores... who ARE excited about crypto-currencies already, earning a paycheck to be excited about cryptos! All of that could really help with -
Local business owners could also have a chance to come by and see how easy some of these systems (Coinbase, BitPay, CoinKite) are to use and integrate. Also.. I've already had 4 people want to buy BTC from me, in person, in the past 2 weeks... 3 on LocalBitcoins.com, and 1 with Mycelium's new "Buy/Sell" feature. One guy drove from Mississippi (2 & 1/2 hours), to buy 1.5 BTC from me! It would be really awesome to provide a "safe area" to meet if this gets bigger, this summer. The Fed actually said that Crypto-currencies could "be a boon" for the economy, recently. I think this could be a chance to prove them right on a positive note, and provide some jobs and opportunities for crypto-enthusiasts! I've already thrown my own money into the name and lawyers and all that stuff to get started. I'm going to have a Bitcoinstarter and Kickstarter event in a few weeks. If you're interested in helping spread some crypto to "Main Street", let me know! TL;DR Please, check out MeetSpace Crypto, and let me know what you think! Thank you, reddit! Edits for formatting
bit_by_bit's mining-cost analysis is wrong - here's mine
bit_by_bit publishes a daily mining-cost-per-coin watch. Though his work is thorough and commendable, it is unfortunately incorrect, and his conclusions naive. I'm sure he has misled people on this board, so I'm here to set the record straight. Roughly using bit_by_bit's assumptions:
difficulty increase is (probably) impossible to predict
I'm 100% sure your miner would not arrive and be switched on today
Given those two huge, highly variable (and unpredictable) factors, trying to work out a cost-per-coin is ... more-or-less impossible. It's simply enough to assume that mining is extremely unprofitable at the moment and (probably) a very poor investment. Here are some examples of variability:
Cointerra TerraMiner IV
cost per coin
0% difficulty increase
20% difficulty increase
15% difficulty, but starting at 30bn difficulty
How are these numbers so different from bit_by_bits?
His calculations do not factor in an exponential difficulty increase. Instead, he says (in his maths) : "if the bitcoin network were composed of the miners here, and no extra miners are added/removed (i.e. difficulty remains the same) what would those miners (on average) achieve as a cost per coin over six months."
The problem with these numbers is
The percentage of miners he uses to compose the network is unknowable, and as you see above, miner performance varies greatly. I'm quite sure that huge operations custom manufacture their machines and never sell them. Their performance is unknown. (an unknowable unknown)
The makeup of the mining network in the future is unknowable, and difficulty will undoubtedly increase, but we can't know by how much. It has previously plateaued. Will it do the same? nobody knows.
They assume the very latest miners, shipped immediately. Historically, new miners are not shipped on time. It's been suggested that the manufacturers keep them and do highly profitable day-zero mining with them.
Also, to suggest that it is possible to predict market movements (and depth) is naive as it asserts that demand is constant, and that supply is the major, or key, factor. This is highly unlikely to be the case.
Let's talk about mining's effect on bitcoin price or, first should we talk about the effect of the price of bitcoin on the mining industry?
The two are intimately linked chicken-and-egg in a feedback loop. For a manufacturer to decide to make a rig, they need to design chips, get industry contacts, produce things (in china), make sure they work, then ship. They also need to get orders and decide if they are able to get the whole project in time for market. These projects are multi-month/year, and I've heard success is largely decided by who you know in china (china's pretty busy already). There is some kind of lag. Investors also pre-order, and must take a wild guess at future conditions with no guarantee whatsoever. At times like now, where mining is so unprofitable, which miners are actually selling coins (at a loss)? Large operations have large overheads, but to sell now, when the price might rise by 10x again would be idiotic. So, really this "supply" aspect of the supply-demand equation is very difficult to get a decent hold on, though I would love somebody to attempt it as a PHD. The blockchain should provide some answers. The other side of it (what miners will be produced) is also difficult to know. It could be that right now (with an unprofitable industry, and miners actually being quite close to desktop PC chip-size - i.e. as fast as humans can make them) no miners are in the pipe-line. This could (in crazy theory) lead to a zero difficulty increase for the lucky new owners of the above rigs. In that case, bit_by_bit's numbers would be spot on. Unfortunately, it's absolutely unknowable.
So... why do people buy miners now?
Quite simply, getting your head around an exponential anything is hard. The exponential difficulty increase is a motherfucker. But it's good for bitcoin (it protects our network from meddlers). Also, you could gamble that mining difficulty has to slow down... surely...
In my experience, looking at price charts is far more informative about future market movements. But, whilst I've got the microphone, I would remind newbies not to trade their coins.
$0.15 (varies quite a bit from country-to country, like 0.7 canada to 0.2 UK?)
price per BTC
I got these numbers off bit_by_bit. I don't care about the details. My argument is that it's not an answerable question. Result:
2252/600 = 3.75 BTC
7446/3.75 = $1985
Please, if I've made a mistake, let me know and I'll send bit_by_bit some flowers.
"Why are you just posting stuff directly against another user: that's not cool"
Well, it's whatever motivates you eh? I just go wound up by our discussions. But, I'm quite sure there are people on this board who don't know this stuff, so ... it's probably beneficial. Have fun EDIT: Ok, so I genuinely thought that I had made a fact-based post. Er, I added a few comments that I thought were funny, but I guess that wasn't a great idea. I removed one of my comments myself, but it's true that the moderators were in touch..... And - to bit_by_bit, I am sorry, because some of the things I said were above and beyond "spirited discussion". I absolutely agree that polite conduct is the way forward, and my initial "hang on a minute" reply to him was nice. But, I do have to admit that this subject has wound me up a fair amount. I genuinely believe that he's made a quite serious mistake - but I am happy to be proved wrong. Right now - I just want to get to the bottom of this. More Edit:
I am a miner
I didn't want to add this before, because I'm sure it (incorrectly) gives my argument more weight. But I need you to understand that bitcoin difficulty is a total motherfucker. I pre-ordered a BFL single for 11BTC in May 2013. The difficulty was about 4 million, and I worked out I'd make 30BTC/day at those conditions. It arrived at around 30 million difficulty, and I think now we're 18 billion. I've made about 0.7 BTC mining, and It's on the limit of believability that I'll make 1BTC before I throw it in the bin. I have a suspicion that it will be useful in the future for some altcoin/blockchain like thing. Also, I got free heating (which was the whole reason I discovered bitcoin in the first place!) Horrific loss. I think it makes about $1 more than it costs in electricity to run (at current price......) This whole post is not a "bitter miner" but somebody who has experienced bitcoin's exponential difficulty First Hand. Honestly, it is unbelievable. I genuinely think that the guy that does the profitability calculator deliberately does not explain what the 'profitability decline per year' is ... because he knows it will adversely harm bitcoin and the manufacture of miners. Even More EDIT:
Am I sure I've got the difficulty increase thing right?
So, I've made a spreadsheet thing to see if the 0.0022 difficulty thing is right. It is. All this table tells you is that in order to calculate 15% difficulty increase, you need to use a number LIKE 0.0022 in the 'profitability decline per year' box, and not 0.98 (which bit_by_bit calculated). I've sanity checked my numbers against the 'profitability calculator' and they don't quite line up, but they're close enough. The difficulty is not the same either, but it's in the same region. I don't know why. Also, the months aren't exact fortnights, so they don't line up. These are details. This proves my above workings to my satisfaction.
what is this horrible data?
It shows how much BTC your miner earns each 2 weeks (average difficulty change period). The last 2 rows (calc:) are from the profitability calculator website (and so are right). My attempt is on the left. Fortnight 13 is 6 months. Oh, this graph uses 14.07% difficulty.
BTC earned accumulated
calculator says BTC
2 bold numbers. 1 is approximately the 3.75 coins that gives you $1900 / coin whatever. 2 is the "profitability decline per year" as a tiny number. The pro tool comes up with 0.01095125 and I got 0.02257 but I don't care - it's close enough. My whole point is that these numbers are totally unworkably all over the place. You can't calculate them meaningfully.
I CANNOT BELIEVE the amount of effort that I have had to go to in order to show you that you made a minor mistake. (at time of writing you still deny it). There is no doubt in my mind now that I was right in the first place. Your calculations do not include a significant difficulty increase. I wish you well.
This is my first Reddit post (I've heard great things about the community from friends, so decided to give it a shot) I've recently started messing around with mining Litecoins with my GPU (GTX 780) since I don't pay for electricity in my apartment and just wanted to get a sense of what mining is. I've also researched different asic miners and found a site that shows a cost-benefit analysis among different hardware on the market. (http://minr.info/) I understand that the revenues you make from mining can fluctuate based on the spot rates of bitcoin (without taking anything else into account) So, let's assume the exchange rate to USD will stay constant for a month starting from today. Why wouldn't someone want to invest in a $6,000 unit that can supposedly return $1,000 a day in revenues? Can someone please help me better understand the detailed and bigger picture of mining before I decide to purchase one of these units. (I'm also aware that a lot of them are backordered and the premiums are high to buy one on the secondary market.) Thanks!
Hello everyone. So i was wondering what happens with my hash power, does it help someone?(hackers/goverments) What benefit does the bitcoin creator gets from my mining power? And another thing, i heard somewhere that you cant mine with 2 machines from the same ip, is that truth?
At what price will Bitcoin fail to function? My estimate: ~$100.
I'll begin with my conclusions: If the Bitcoin network consisted solely of 'Titanium ASIC' miners, the most powerful and energy efficient mining machine I know of, then the price point at which electricity costs begins to exceed rewards is $71/BTC (based on yesterday's network figures; more on that later). More realistically though, most miners aren't running highly efficient Titanium ASICs, hence I estimate ~$100/BTC as the turning point. I say 'fail to function' in my title, because who will continue to mine at a pure loss? It would be irrational - the rational action would be turn off the machine until the value of the rewards increases. Note: This is not the same as sunk costs in buying hardware - because in that case even if you never get back how much you paid, you're still making something. Perhaps, you might counter, Bitcoin enthusiasts will continue to mine at a loss. Well consider this: To sustain just 1% of the current network hash rate, you would require 559 Titanium ASICs costing over one million dollars in yearly electricity cost (at $0.10/kWh) - and that's a best case scenario. Let's assume that's the case - you have Bitcoin Enthusiasts contributing the equivalent of 559 Titanium ASICs hashing power for free out of their pocket. That's a 99% drop in hash rate. The time to a difficulty retarget is 2016 blocks, or at 10minutes/block that's 2 weeks. But if the hash rate were to drop by 99% within that two week period, then the block time would balloon out to 16.66 hours - making the block retarget ETA up to 3.8 years! If transactions took 16.66 hours just to get a single confirmation (if they had first priority), then how would use of Bitcoin remain practically feasible? Would people still have confidence in the system and the developers for allowing this to happen? How difficult or costly would it be to launch a 51% attack? Now, on to the calculations, and a few less optimistic alternate scenarios: Network hash rate at time of calculation: 335,365,290.09 GH/s 335,365,290.09 GH/s / 6000GH/s = 55894.215 'Titanium ASIC' miners 55894.215 x $5.28 daily electricity cost (At $0.10/kWh) = $295121.4552/day in electricity costs = $1776.87709485/block (avg. time of 8.67 minutes) $1776.87709485 / 25BTC block reward = $71.04/BTC = break even point. The above does not account for pool fees or transaction fee revenue or more importantly variance in kWh rates ($0.10/kWh is nonetheless pretty low worldwide), and hardware cost is irrelevant to this calculation. Without doing all the math again, here's some other popular mining machines for comparison: $113.07 (SP35 Yukon) $193.84 (CoinTerra TerraMiner IV) $385.89 (Antminer S1) I've also just seen the 'Antminer S4' mentioned in /Bitcoin, so just for comparison a Titanium ASIC is almost twice as energy efficient as an Antiminer S4 (2200W vs. 4200W for 6TH/s) - it's less efficient than the SP35 Yukon. If I've made any miscalculations here or have left anything important out, feel free to correct me.
The machine is secure in a server room. Home is not a good place to run this IMO.
I am mining on Eligius but I will monitor that in case their share gets too big.
I do not know anyone from Cointerra personally. I was chosen to be customer 1 because I live in Austin and I am active in the local bitcoin community (is what they told me).
I have certainly met a lot of Cointerra people since a week ago and I really like everyone I met.
I am the guy doing the Numisalis coin. I am wearing that shirt in the picture. I still really believe in it and encourage contributions to the Indiegogo campaign.
Fire away! edit: Stats! The miners typically run at ~1.7TH/s. I have seen it jump to 2TH/s and have seen it drop to 1.55TH/s but those speeds are not sustained. There are 2 power supplies. Each pulls 1kW pretty much on the nose. Fans run at full speed all the time right now. I have been told a not-yet-scheduled firmware upgrade will address that as well as other power and speed improvements. I can only go on what I see right now though.
What happens when mining is completely non-profitable?
Difficulty keeps going up, price keeps going down. A quick look at the bitcoin calculator on bitcoinwisdom.com shows that at this rate, even the $6,000 TerraMiner IV would take about 214 to break even, and any other miners would never ROI. It looks like the only way to get into mining right now and profit would be to stake an initial investment of $6,000, and the amount of people willing to do that is extremely small. Yet the hashrate continues to rise somehow. I know that there are plenty of miners who have already earned back their hardware costs and continue to mine as long as their profits outweigh their electric costs. But what happens when the price drops so low and the difficulty gets so high that the electricity used actually costs more than the bitcoin earned? Would the network hashrate completely plummit and drastically extend transaction times?
I ponded whether or not to mine bitcoin, then the ASICs were announced. Luckily, I didn't preorder Butterfly Labs, but that whole scenario made me a skeptic. I pondered whether or not to buy a Bitcoin ASIC (the first month the terraminer was on Preorder), and I let that slip by. I pondered whether or not to mine Litecoin, and that slip by. I'm still very skeptical about Litecoin ASIC shipping times so in the meantime, I decided I will buy one when they are available to ship, not for preorder. Till then, I decided to force myself into purchasing high performing cards and mining. I think about things WAY too much and often end up convincing myself not to do them. There's no going back, I'm tired of looking into the water and trying to see if it's warm or not— debating whether I should dip my feet in. I've jumped in 8 graphics cards deep. I've been looking at building guides for months, but after mark-ups and outdated builds, I'm reaching out to see what builds would be good for mining with these 8 cards. Any links or advice would be very much appreciated. SIDE NOTE: I have two GTX 690s I purchased for my incredibly powerful, yet amazingly irritating hackintosh, which I am now incredible frustrated and eventually will be turning in for a Mac Pro. I've been getting about 1150 KH/s with the two cards running CudaMiner on OS X or 530~560KHs Vert— Do you think it's worth it to keep the cards in my new build? Or sell them on eBay? http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=291126412466 TL;DR part 1: Bought 2 XFX/6 Sapphire 290Xs for $2400, $300 each, and I would like to know what is the most efficient, cheapest mining rig to build around it. I have looked at many guides (not the software quite yet), I am open to using Linux as I hear that is the best and would preferably like to be able to control the units remotely. part 2: I also have access to two GTX 690s hashing at 1150kh/s scrypt, 530~560KHs scrypt-N— is it worth running these if I have access to free electricity? Or should I sell them on ebay?
How has your Cointerra and/or Butterfly labs experience been?
Hello all, Been litecoin mining and looking to drop $2800 on a butterfly labs monarch and another $6000 on a cointerra teraminer 4. I am a bit nervous about dropping the coin on something that ships in february and april respectively to companies that I have never dealt with. How has everyones' experience been with them? The monarch, if still profitable at the time, will do bitcoin or an alt coin, but the terraminer should still be bitcoin profitable with that much power in april...if not to the alt coin mines for it too. Thanks for any feedback you may have! EDIT: Read the sticky under the FAQ on BFL. Are they still this bad? Ebay is filled with their units so they do ship...but maybe way too late?
Hello, I want to start mining and was thinking about ordering the Terraminer since it seems to have a good payout (according to online calculators which say I would be a billionaire in 100 days o_O) I was wondering if it would be worth it, if i can mine doge with it and How much i would earn approximately ? Thanks http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-1-6-ths-bitcoin-mine
hello i just mined bitcoins and i am looking forward to start mining darkcoins with my terraminers but i got a huge problem i dont find a pool without regestration maybe one of you got some advice for me
First and fore most; Yes I am new to this board. No I am not new to the ideas of reddit, mining or of a coop. I was wondering if the members of reddit would be interested in forming a Coop. I just recently started one for another group of friends (no worries, no links or the like here) and it occurred to me to see about one for reddit, given its large user base and number of enthusiasts. What I did before was set up a site with a webstore applet (and a twitter feed, about us sections, rules section, etc) linked to paypal so that a legal chain of custody for the funding was established and recorded (bitcoin transfers being anonymous and all). This also established publicly on the site a set of terms and conditions for the Coop. What we came up with for ground rules were as follows; Payout % will be based on % of hashing power purchased (in other words if you buy 1/100 of the machines power for yourself, you get 1/100 of the net pay out) Payouts will take place on the 15th and 30th of each month after mining becomes active Payouts will be in BTC transfer only, and all members are required to have a Bitcoin wallet address Hashing power will be sold in blocks of 50 GH/s for the first machine (40 blocks in total) A 3% upkeep and administration fee will be deducted before payouts take place 25% of total revenue will be reinvested for the purpose of increasing our network power. Members will be given equal stake in new equipment equal to there previous % at no charge. The network will purchase Terraminer IV machines until/unless something with a better powecost ratio is on the market (these machines currently cost $3/GH before shipping and taxes, approximately $6,800 with shipping and taxes included) The coop will never forcibly buy out anyone's stake in the network A network member may request a buyout equal to 4x a normal payout. However they may not do so for the first 6 months of active mining Mining will begin in April and a twitter account will be set up on behalf of the Coop by its manager so that he can keep everyone updated in a timely manner Once all the stakes are bought, no new members may "buy in" Members may not sell their share of the network to any one user to prevent general BS and ill feelings of back alley dealings If the network should ever receive a request for buy out and do so, that share of the network is to be evenly split among remaining members. Members will not be charged for this and the reinvestment % will be used to conduct all transactions of this nature So there you have it. These rules can be changed to suit need if anyone has ideas about them or additions they think necessary (just make sure your idea is concise and clear). Thoughts? Opinions? Feedback?
http://i.imgur.com/vzTj05k.jpg These numbers assume I am getting free electricity at the office, where I currently mine with a 30 GH little single, ordered in October of 2012 and delivered some time in August, 2013. Unless my numbers are way off (and who knows, really..), the best-case scenario isn't very attractive. I'd sooner drop $3,499 on buying Bitcoin itself -- it would seem like this was more of a sure thing given how time-sensitive delivery time can be. In the best-case scenario, if delivery were to slip by just one month to mid-February, I might not break even by the end of 2014. This is my best shot at analyzing this sort of purchase -- am I close?
Looking to upgrade and wanting to see how much I could possibly make a month.
Hey everyone, Been saving up for quite some time now and I have about 10k available and was looking at some prebuilt equipment to upgrade with. I currently am running my x4 R9 280X and basically want to out perform it greatly! I've seen this pop up a few times: https://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-1-6-ths-bitcoin-mine and was wondering is it worth it? I want to buy two of them but I also need to know how much I will make per month with it on bitcoin and litecoin. Also this is my first premade system I would buy so if you think its not worth it please let me know. Basically I want to make a pretty good profit of course with these but need some advice. Its estimated to run at 2100 watts each an here its 0.15 kWh USD. So what do you guys think? Have any advice or maybe even better builds? Can someone maybe show me some numbers because I am using the calculators but they seem to be way off so I know I'm doing something wrong haha. Is it obvious that my little hobby has turn into an addiction to mine more and see if I can make more? xD
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